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A CORPORATE GAME OF INTERNET MONOPOLY | PAGE 1, 2
The bigger change that the @Home-Excite merger portends is the continuing collapse of the distinction between Internet service providers and Web content providers. In the old days, the Net business had three tiers: Service providers (ISPs) made sure that your computer could connect with the Internet (the online equivalent of a dial tone); search engines (later, portals) provided basic generic information and guides to the rest of the online world; and content providers put up Web sites as destinations for people to access via their ISPs and portals. This model makes a lot of sense, and in the early days of the Web it was the medium's secret weapon in its struggle to supplant the proprietary online services like CompuServe, Prodigy and America Online. Content providers flocked to the Web because it was an open commons, and that attracted users, and the proprietary services became backwaters. But AOL turned the game around with its transformation into what it now proudly calls itself in its advertising -- "the world's leading Internet service provider." AOL has found huge success by combining its role as an easy-to-use service provider with its traditional business of aggregating content from lots of sources. The search-engines-turned-portals, like Yahoo and Excite, have always had to persuade people to adopt them as the default start page for their browsing. AOL has an advantage because it bundles its ISP service with its elaborate proprietary content areas. You could use AOL as a simple gateway to the rest of the Web (though its service tends to be sluggish), but most AOL users don't. To its own advantage, AOL has successfully blurred the line between AOL pages and Web pages, and between the ISP business and the media business. Excite and @Home must be planning to adopt this AOL strategy on the new terrain of broadband: They want to be an all-in-one service provider, Net portal and content provider. That's precisely why it's America Online that's fighting @Home and its biggest shareholder, cable giant TCI, to get the company to open up its broadband services to alternative providers -- in other words, AOL wants you to be able to sign up for cable modem service via TCI-@Home but use AOL as your "portal" and content provider. And you can bet AOL understands that the Excite-@Home deal creates a major potential rival to its dominance of the consumer Internet industry. What finally turns this story into the corporate equivalent of an M.C. Escher print is the pending merger of TCI with AT&T -- which will put the largest provider of cable modem service in the hands of a telephone giant. AT&T has a large ISP service of its own that is struggling to grow against AOL; if it winds up owning Excite (via TCI's share of @Home), it can help turn Excite into the default home page for its millions of subscribers. Telephone companies like AT&T have a tradition of doing business as "common carriers": The companies that provide the connection are distinct from the companies that make use of the lines. Cable companies have no such tradition. As the mergers continue, which model will Internet service -- the basic provision of an Internet-protocol-based connection to the global network -- adopt? In a sense, of course, all Internet service is common carrier; if you have access to the Net, you can go anywhere on the Net you wish. But the rise of new integrated portal/ISP companies like AOL has complicated the picture: This struggle isn't about where you can go, but about where masses of consumers are going to be herded. AOL, hungry for access to cable customers, argues that it has a common-carrier-style right to deliver service over the cable industry's wires. But @Home-Excite can argue that its game of intertwining service and content is one that AOL itself invented. Meanwhile, even as this deal seems to be setting up a titanic conflict between AOL-Netscape and AT&T-TCI-@Home-Excite, there's a different lineup forming one level higher on this vast 3-D chessboard. @Home and Excite are both companies that were funded by, and grew up under the umbrella of, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, Silicon Valley's ubiquitous venture-capital firm. As it happens, Kleiner Perkins and its high-profile partner John Doerr are also credited with putting together the AOL-Netscape merger (as San Jose Mercury News columnist Chris Nolan pointed out in breaking the story on the @Home-Excite deal on Sunday). In ringleading such disparate and apparently conflicting deals, what could Kleiner Perkins possibly be up to? Think of it as part of an "Anyone but Microsoft" plan: Whoever wins and loses in the evolving @Home-AOL battle, Microsoft isn't even in the game. In the Internet service and content areas, Bill Gates' crew has only a string of failures and near-misses to show -- from the many incarnations of the Microsoft Network to the acquisition of WebTV, which has never taken off with the public. Whether it's because they're distracted by the antitrust trial or just
not very adept at the media and telecommunications businesses, Microsoft's
leaders have yet to make good on their enemies' paranoia. So far, the
future of Net access doesn't look like a world Microsoft will or can
dominate. But Microsoft is an insanely rich company that doesn't take
losing well. While the poo-bahs of Silicon Valley celebrate their
deal-making prowess this week -- which nearly doubled the market value of
Excite -- they would be plain dumb to write off the software
superpower. - - - - - - - - - - - -
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