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The Booz-Allen team contracted with about two dozen former top military officials, including a former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Army's former chief special operations officer, to "war game" germ and chemical attacks on U.S. forces and how the Pentagon would respond to them.
In the scenario, economic sanctions on Iraq have been lifted, allowing Saddam Hussein to secretly rebuild his chemical and biological stocks. At the same time, despite warming relations with Washington, Iran has continued its military build-up and held to its goal of expelling U.S. forces from the Gulf. A crisis is triggered when the formerly bitter enemies act in concert, Iraq invading Kuwait but quickly assuring Saudi Arabia that its goal is limited to recapturing its "19th province." At the same time, Iran sends a "Trojan horse" naval convoy to Bahrain to back a Shiite plot to overthrow the U.S.-friendly regime.
Then, in the war game scenario, chemical and biological attacks are launched to paralyze U.S. ground, Naval and air reinforcements en route.
"CNN had picked up the cholera story," the scenario goes. "The ships en route to the Gulf were being referred to as 'the plague convoy.'" They begin steaming in circle, their sick bays swamped. Suddenly Iraq looses a volley of missiles armed with mustard gas on a U.S. airfield in Kuwait, stopping a line of huge C-5 transports taking off for resupply flights to Europe.
In North Carolina, meanwhile, a crop duster lifts off the night runway at the appropriately named Locust, a farming town near Pope Air Force Base, and heads toward hangers filled with F-15 fighters and pilots. In Savannah, Ga., and 10 other East Coast military bases, Iraqi agents driving bread trucks position themselves upwind with gas-spewing generators.
"The teams had come into the United States two years earlier (and) obtained jobs in the area. The pilots worked as taxi drivers at the airport. The others had similar positions, driving hotel courtesy vans or delivery trucks," the scenario goes. The terrorist attacks paralyze U.S. personnel. "The casualties overwhelmed the largely ill-equipped and untrained first responders," the study adds.
Havoc reigns. Next, a saboteur steps off the last subway train at the Pentagon Metro station the following night, dons a gas mask and tosses several quart glass bottles of liquid mustard agent onto the platform. An anonymous caller "claims responsibility for the attack on behalf of the 'Friends of Iraq and Iran' and (says) that a second device has been emplaced within the Pentagon itself."
And so on.
In the end, the good guys win. After days of death, delays, confusion and mass panic, the U.S. moves its logistical bases to alternates in western Saudi Arabia, rushes unaffected Naval and Air Force units to the region, pounds the Iraqis into submission, decontaminates poisoned bases, buries the dead and evicts the Iranians from Bahrain.
Hooray. But not after considerable damage has been done -- and delays that might give the Iraqis time to sway U.S. public opinion against a long, drawn-out struggle on behalf of Kuwait, whose super-rich, quick-to-flee elites earned little sympathy when they were televised partying in Cairo while G.I.s put their lives on the line in Desert Storm.
That may be one reason U.S. officials from President Clinton on down have warned Saddam of instant, apocalyptic response if he launches chemical and biological attacks. They fear that the American public may have little stomach for protracted conflicts, especially when the casualties mount up.
At the same time, the Booz-Allen & Hamilton study ("Assessment of the Impact of Chemical and Biological Weapons on Joint Operations in 2010") assumes a rather brilliant symphony of political, military and terrorist attacks -- one for which the Iraqis have shown little previous aptitude. Even one of the study's authors concedes that the "Red Team" that took the part of the Iraqis in the war game might have played its roles too well.
"One of the things I've always thought about as questionable in the study is that it assumes a logical enemy," admitted Bill Richardson, a deputy assistant of Defense for chemical and biological matters in the Bush administration. "One must assume that -- but it's often wrong."
How much better an "illogical" enemy like Iraq makes us feel, so long as it possesses chemical and biological weapons, is another question.
SALON | Feb. 9, 1998
Jeff Stein writes about national security and intelligence issues for Salon. He is the author of "A Murder in Wartime: The Untold Spy Story That Changed the Course of the Vietnam War" (St. Martin's Press).

T A B L E+T A L K Is support for abortion rights declining, and if so, why? Join the Aborting abortion debate in Politics R E C E N T L Y The lady is not a tramp By Jenn Shreve The lurid coverage of Monica Lewinsky's sex life tells us more about aging geezers in the press corps than it does about a young white house intern (02/06/98) The roots of the Clinton smear By Gene Lyons How Gennifer Flowers and other fast buck artists spawned the Clinton smear (02/05/98) Men in black (robes) By Bruce Shapiro Looking for an anti-Clinton arch-conspirator? Try the Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court (02/04/98) Subpoena me? Subpoena you! By Jonathan Broder Trying to turn the tables, the president's attorney gets legal on Kenneth Starr (02/03/98) Tonya's trials By Jane Meredith Adams How Tonya Harding went from skating champion to video poker addict (02/02/98) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Browse the Newsreal Archives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
		GERM WAR GAMES \| PAGE 2 OF 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - The Booz-Allen team contracted with about two dozen former top military officials, including a former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Army's former chief special operations officer, to "war game" germ and chemical attacks on U.S. forces and how the Pentagon would respond to them. In the scenario, economic sanctions on Iraq have been lifted, allowing Saddam Hussein to secretly rebuild his chemical and biological stocks. At the same time, despite warming relations with Washington, Iran has continued its military build-up and held to its goal of expelling U.S. forces from the Gulf. A crisis is triggered when the formerly bitter enemies act in concert, Iraq invading Kuwait but quickly assuring Saudi Arabia that its goal is limited to recapturing its "19th province." At the same time, Iran sends a "Trojan horse" naval convoy to Bahrain to back a Shiite plot to overthrow the U.S.-friendly regime. Then, in the war game scenario, chemical and biological attacks are launched to paralyze U.S. ground, Naval and air reinforcements en route. "CNN had picked up the cholera story," the scenario goes. "The ships en route to the Gulf were being referred to as 'the plague convoy.'" They begin steaming in circle, their sick bays swamped. Suddenly Iraq looses a volley of missiles armed with mustard gas on a U.S. airfield in Kuwait, stopping a line of huge C-5 transports taking off for resupply flights to Europe. In North Carolina, meanwhile, a crop duster lifts off the night runway at the appropriately named Locust, a farming town near Pope Air Force Base, and heads toward hangers filled with F-15 fighters and pilots. In Savannah, Ga., and 10 other East Coast military bases, Iraqi agents driving bread trucks position themselves upwind with gas-spewing generators. "The teams had come into the United States two years earlier (and) obtained jobs in the area. The pilots worked as taxi drivers at the airport. The others had similar positions, driving hotel courtesy vans or delivery trucks," the scenario goes. The terrorist attacks paralyze U.S. personnel. "The casualties overwhelmed the largely ill-equipped and untrained first responders," the study adds. Havoc reigns. Next, a saboteur steps off the last subway train at the Pentagon Metro station the following night, dons a gas mask and tosses several quart glass bottles of liquid mustard agent onto the platform. An anonymous caller "claims responsibility for the attack on behalf of the 'Friends of Iraq and Iran' and (says) that a second device has been emplaced within the Pentagon itself." And so on. In the end, the good guys win. After days of death, delays, confusion and mass panic, the U.S. moves its logistical bases to alternates in western Saudi Arabia, rushes unaffected Naval and Air Force units to the region, pounds the Iraqis into submission, decontaminates poisoned bases, buries the dead and evicts the Iranians from Bahrain. Hooray. But not after considerable damage has been done -- and delays that might give the Iraqis time to sway U.S. public opinion against a long, drawn-out struggle on behalf of Kuwait, whose super-rich, quick-to-flee elites earned little sympathy when they were televised partying in Cairo while G.I.s put their lives on the line in Desert Storm. That may be one reason U.S. officials from President Clinton on down have warned Saddam of instant, apocalyptic response if he launches chemical and biological attacks. They fear that the American public may have little stomach for protracted conflicts, especially when the casualties mount up. At the same time, the Booz-Allen & Hamilton study ("Assessment of the Impact of Chemical and Biological Weapons on Joint Operations in 2010") assumes a rather brilliant symphony of political, military and terrorist attacks -- one for which the Iraqis have shown little previous aptitude. Even one of the study's authors concedes that the "Red Team" that took the part of the Iraqis in the war game might have played its roles too well. "One of the things I've always thought about as questionable in the study is that it assumes a logical enemy," admitted Bill Richardson, a deputy assistant of Defense for chemical and biological matters in the Bush administration. "One must assume that -- but it's often wrong." How much better an "illogical" enemy like Iraq makes us feel, so long as it possesses chemical and biological weapons, is another question. SALON \| Feb. 9, 1998 Jeff Stein writes about national security and intelligence issues for Salon. He is the author of "A Murder in Wartime: The Untold Spy Story That Changed the Course of the Vietnam War" (St. Martin's Press).