Salon Newsreal | Endgame?

A L S O+T O D A Y

Postcards from Yugoslavia
Postcards from Yugoslavia: E-mail lets ordinary citizens get their story out to the world
A raft of refugees
Reports of genocide, political assassinations and a Serbian "scorched-earth policy" punctuated the sixth day of allied bombing in Yugoslavia

T A B L E+T A L K
Has Larry Flynt delivered dynamite revelations or dirty laundry leftovers? Dissect the Flynt Report in the Politics area of Table Talk

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Want to know more about the history of baseball? Find it at barnesandnoble.com
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R E C E N T L Y
Calling Kosovo
By Laura Rozen
Serbs and ethnic Albanians are united -- in misery -- as the bombing and the terror continue
(03/29/99)
The empires strike back
By Jeff Stein
As the world focuses on the Balkans, the return of Germany and Japan to military action barely made news
(03/29/99)
Play béisbol!
By Steve Kettmann
A report from Havana on the historic Cuba-Orioles game
(03/29/99)
Outlaw nation?
By Laura Rozen
Even Serbs who hate Milosevic are outraged at NATO bombing
(03/27/99)
Verdict on Starr's witness
By Murray S. Waas and Suzi Parker
Whitewater figure David Hale is found guilty on Arkansas state criminal charges.
(03/27/99)
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Endgame?
AS THE CRISIS SPIRALS OUT OF CONTROL, EVERYBODY SCRAMBLES FOR A QUICK SOLUTION. EVERYBODY BUT MILOSEVIC.

BY JEFF STEIN | "We can't help every country in every situation," Defense Secretary William Cohen said the other day. No kidding, says a growing chorus of critics, who are watching NATO airstrikes worsen the Kosovo crisis they were intended to solve. Among those critics is George Friedman, co-author (with his wife, Meredith,) of such books as "The Intelligence Edge," "The Future of War" and "The Coming War with Japan." The former director of Louisiana State University's Center for Geopolitical Studies, Friedman in 1996 founded Strafor Inc., one of the fastest-moving sources of information on global events, including the Kosovo crisis.
NATO's bombing campaign has been "ridiculous," Friedman scoffs, pathetically under-strength for the mission of fending off Serbian ground units in Kosovo, not to mention bending Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosovic to its will. Friedman flatly rules out a ground invasion of Kosovo to rescue what's left of the hapless ethnic Albanians there, for the simple reason that NATO doesn't have the tools to pull it off, he says.
Salon interviewed Friedman from his company offices in Austin, Texas, as the crisis deepened, with tens of thousands of refugees fleeing Kosovo, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov calling for genocide trials -- against NATO leaders, not Milosevic -- and India threatening to form a tripartite alliance with China and Russia.
With all our-high tech gadgetry and air superiority, many people are asking why we can't destroy Serbian forces in Kosovo.
We haven't got enough firepower. NATO's only got about 166 ground attack aircraft in the operation -- totally inadequate for the type of mission that's been defined. For example, we have between 12 and 16 A-10 antitank planes in theater. If we assume 70 percent availability, and two sorties a day each, that's a pretty big country to cover. Remember in Desert Storm, it took us six months to build up our air power, and then a six-week campaign with about five times as many aircraft.
Are you saying no amount of bombing -- all of NATO's might -- can wring victory from this situation?
No, I'm saying there is an amount of bombing, but we don't have the aircraft anyway near there to do it, and it would take us two to three months to get there. It's not that the United States lacks sufficient force to carry out the mission. The problem is that they have not taken the time to deploy those forces, and for the first time since the Second World War, the United States is simultaneously involved in a second air campaign, over Iraq. We just don't have the resources to do it.
On your Web site, you've pointed out that the Serbs can bring withering anti-aircraft fire against low-flying NATO ground support planes in Kosovo. Have they been using it at all?
This is a very interesting point. They are holding back almost all of their fire, and, I think, waiting to go out with a crescendo, perhaps opening up suddenly with all their forces on the ground. Their main concern has always been the security of their forces operating in Kosovo. From their point of view, however, the number of NATO aircraft operating in Kosovo is so low they're hardly worth noticing -- 12 A-10s is a joke, that's not a mission.
And you don't think NATO will -- or should -- send in ground troops?
Not unless they want to die. You've got 20,000 crack Yugoslav troops guarding the two mountain-pass roads into Kosovo. Any attempt to dislodge those troops would cause thousands of casualties on our side and the mission would probably fail.
What would NATO troops face if they cross into Kosovo from Macedonia?
We're talking 20,000 to 30,000 Serb troops operating internally in Kosovo, and another 20,000 on the Macedonia frontier. I mean, this is ludicrous from a military point of view: We were not ready for this air campaign, in truth, and certainly not an invasion.
NATO wasn't prepared for this operation?
No. The Clinton administration believed that Milosevic would permit Serbia to be dismembered because of the threat of air power. We once more have done what we do in every war: We totally underestimate the intelligence of our opponent. We did it with the Japanese, the Viet Cong, with Saddam and now with Milosevic. He wouldn't dare challenge the United States, we thought. Well, why not?

N E X T+P A G E+| Milosevic backed off in Bosnia. Why not this time?

A L S O+T O D A Y Postcards from Yugoslavia Postcards from Yugoslavia: E-mail lets ordinary citizens get their story out to the world A raft of refugees Reports of genocide, political assassinations and a Serbian "scorched-earth policy" punctuated the sixth day of allied bombing in Yugoslavia T A B L E+T A L K Has Larry Flynt delivered dynamite revelations or dirty laundry leftovers? Dissect the Flynt Report in the Politics area of Table Talk ___________________ Want to know more about the history of baseball? Find it at barnesandnoble.com ___________________ R E C E N T L Y Calling Kosovo By Laura Rozen Serbs and ethnic Albanians are united -- in misery -- as the bombing and the terror continue (03/29/99) The empires strike back By Jeff Stein As the world focuses on the Balkans, the return of Germany and Japan to military action barely made news (03/29/99) Play béisbol! By Steve Kettmann A report from Havana on the historic Cuba-Orioles game (03/29/99) Outlaw nation? By Laura Rozen Even Serbs who hate Milosevic are outraged at NATO bombing (03/27/99) Verdict on Starr's witness By Murray S. Waas and Suzi Parker Whitewater figure David Hale is found guilty on Arkansas state criminal charges. (03/27/99) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Browse the Newsreal Archives - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
		Endgame? AS THE CRISIS SPIRALS OUT OF CONTROL, EVERYBODY SCRAMBLES FOR A QUICK SOLUTION. EVERYBODY BUT MILOSEVIC. BY JEFF STEIN \| "We can't help every country in every situation," Defense Secretary William Cohen said the other day. No kidding, says a growing chorus of critics, who are watching NATO airstrikes worsen the Kosovo crisis they were intended to solve. Among those critics is George Friedman, co-author (with his wife, Meredith,) of such books as "The Intelligence Edge," "The Future of War" and "The Coming War with Japan." The former director of Louisiana State University's Center for Geopolitical Studies, Friedman in 1996 founded Strafor Inc., one of the fastest-moving sources of information on global events, including the Kosovo crisis. NATO's bombing campaign has been "ridiculous," Friedman scoffs, pathetically under-strength for the mission of fending off Serbian ground units in Kosovo, not to mention bending Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosovic to its will. Friedman flatly rules out a ground invasion of Kosovo to rescue what's left of the hapless ethnic Albanians there, for the simple reason that NATO doesn't have the tools to pull it off, he says. Salon interviewed Friedman from his company offices in Austin, Texas, as the crisis deepened, with tens of thousands of refugees fleeing Kosovo, Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov calling for genocide trials -- against NATO leaders, not Milosevic -- and India threatening to form a tripartite alliance with China and Russia. With all our-high tech gadgetry and air superiority, many people are asking why we can't destroy Serbian forces in Kosovo. We haven't got enough firepower. NATO's only got about 166 ground attack aircraft in the operation -- totally inadequate for the type of mission that's been defined. For example, we have between 12 and 16 A-10 antitank planes in theater. If we assume 70 percent availability, and two sorties a day each, that's a pretty big country to cover. Remember in Desert Storm, it took us six months to build up our air power, and then a six-week campaign with about five times as many aircraft. Are you saying no amount of bombing -- all of NATO's might -- can wring victory from this situation? No, I'm saying there is an amount of bombing, but we don't have the aircraft anyway near there to do it, and it would take us two to three months to get there. It's not that the United States lacks sufficient force to carry out the mission. The problem is that they have not taken the time to deploy those forces, and for the first time since the Second World War, the United States is simultaneously involved in a second air campaign, over Iraq. We just don't have the resources to do it. On your Web site, you've pointed out that the Serbs can bring withering anti-aircraft fire against low-flying NATO ground support planes in Kosovo. Have they been using it at all? This is a very interesting point. They are holding back almost all of their fire, and, I think, waiting to go out with a crescendo, perhaps opening up suddenly with all their forces on the ground. Their main concern has always been the security of their forces operating in Kosovo. From their point of view, however, the number of NATO aircraft operating in Kosovo is so low they're hardly worth noticing -- 12 A-10s is a joke, that's not a mission. And you don't think NATO will -- or should -- send in ground troops? Not unless they want to die. You've got 20,000 crack Yugoslav troops guarding the two mountain-pass roads into Kosovo. Any attempt to dislodge those troops would cause thousands of casualties on our side and the mission would probably fail. What would NATO troops face if they cross into Kosovo from Macedonia? We're talking 20,000 to 30,000 Serb troops operating internally in Kosovo, and another 20,000 on the Macedonia frontier. I mean, this is ludicrous from a military point of view: We were not ready for this air campaign, in truth, and certainly not an invasion. NATO wasn't prepared for this operation? No. The Clinton administration believed that Milosevic would permit Serbia to be dismembered because of the threat of air power. We once more have done what we do in every war: We totally underestimate the intelligence of our opponent. We did it with the Japanese, the Viet Cong, with Saddam and now with Milosevic. He wouldn't dare challenge the United States, we thought. Well, why not? N E X T+P A G E+\| Milosevic backed off in Bosnia. Why not this time?