Giuliani's nightmare won't end with the primary either. His claim to liberal and moderate support rests with the Liberal Party, a tiny but significant entity that he controls through the patronage of its leadership. The perennial joke about the Liberal Party is that it is neither liberal nor a party, but it does possess a statewide ballot line that could deliver to Giuliani some traditional Democrats who cannot bring themselves to pull the GOP lever.

Yet if Giuliani accepts the Liberal Party line, he will almost surely forfeit the nomination of the Conservative Party, another patronage-swilling outfit that will have a line on the November 2000 ballot. The Conservatives may or may not countenance the mayor's soft line on abortion and gay rights, but its leaders won't endorse a candidate who is also running as a big-L Liberal. A strong Conservative spoiler nominee could deprive the Republican of more than 5 percent -- more than enough to decide a close election.

Finally there is New York's Right-to-Life Party, formed years ago because the Conservative Party seemed insufficiently pure on the abortion issue. Neither Giuliani nor Pataki can expect to get the Right-to-Life nomination and ballot line. That could cost the Republican another 2 or 3 points.

Such are the mundane realities that lie beneath all the hysterical blather about the Hillary phenomenon. Still, her victory is not assured by any means. Even her friends have wondered aloud why she would subject herself to the unwelcoming New York media and the possibility of defeat. Cynics may believe otherwise, but the truth is that the first lady isn't merely looking for another job. She enjoys political combat and believes in what she is fighting for; that is the foundation of the powerful support from New York Democrats that has brought her to the brink of announcing her campaign.

As for Al Gore, it's true that he suffers from a dull and blurry image; his message, whatever that may be, isn't exciting the Democratic electorate. But the Gore advisors should stop complaining about Hillary and devote themselves to the improvement of their boss. A presidential candidate who worries about being overshadowed by a Senate hopeful looks and sounds like a loser. Hillary can help Gore more than she hurts him. He should learn to make the most of the remarkable woman who is almost certain to be his political companion.
salon.com | June 1, 1999

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