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Gore's organization will be tough to beat, acknowledges Rauh. "Of the top 100 Democrats in New Hampshire, almost all are with Gore," he says. Gore's been very active with the state Democrats, Rauh explains. "He worked very hard this year to elect a Democrat state Senate, so there's lots of loyalty and respect and friendship."

But Gore is increasingly marked as vulnerable. "Is Gore the politician that Clinton is? Absolutely not," political observer Charlie Cook says. "Does he bond with people in the same way? Do people feel a warmth about him? Are people curious and interested in him? No. So there's an opening there."

Additionally, Cook says, people are always longing for change after eight years of one president's rule. Gore's status quo position allows Bradley, an 18-year Hill veteran, to profile like an outsider -- which is laughable on its face, though his charm and underdog status let him get away with it (a little). In Manchester, it was hard to listen to Tipper Gore argue that this country needs a radical shift -- "We need revolutionary change in our schools," she said -- and not think: "Your husband's in a place to make that change. So get to work!" Of course, such is the curse of any incumbent VP trying for his boss's job, as Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey both learned. Gore is hoping for the success George Bush enjoyed following Ronald Reagan, although his one-term presidency in some ways confirmed the political taint of the vice presidency.

But for right now, most of the equation adds up well for Gore, whose assets are considerable: an expansive organization and a hell of a lot of cash. While the intimacy of the New Hampshire primary allows for populist upsets -- like Pat Buchanan's surprising showings in '92 and '96, for instance -- the question for the state's Democratic voters may end up not being "Why Bradley?" so much as "Why not Gore?"

Apparently Bradley is doing a decent job in answering that question. A Reuters/Zogby International poll released this week "showed Gore leading Bradley by only 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters." Bradley's support was with voters who were younger, suburban and earning more than $35,000 a year. And Reuters added, "Interestingly, 59 percent of Democrats said that whether a candidate had the support of President Clinton would not be a factor in their decision."

The Weekly Standard's William Kristol sees the poll numbers as unimpressive for Gore. "His boss has an 80 percent approval rating, most Americans think the country's going in the right direction, this is the most successful Democratic administration in a long time, and he's beating Bradley by what? Twenty points? That's not so great for an incumbent.

"If Bradley comes close to Gore in Iowa, and beats him in New Hampshire, then he's got a real shot," says Kristol, who points out that the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucus are quickly followed by primaries in New York, New Jersey and California -- all states where Bradley enjoys a fair degree of popularity.

Bradley has also been at a tremendous advantage ever since Sens. Bob Kerrey, D-Neb., and John Kerry, D-Mass., et al. wimped out. "All the Republican candidates in 1996 spent millions and millions and millions of dollars, and spent day after day in New Hampshire, trying to get into the final two with Dole -- and Bradley just starts there," points out Charlie Cook. "All he needs is one person to screw up and he's the nominee. It's an enviable position to be in, to be the only alternative. And Al Gore is not the most sure-footed front-runner we've ever seen."

And Democrats take note: "As for a pure political prognosis," Kristol adds, "Bradley's got the same moderate-to-liberal positions without the same baggage." If he were to get the nomination, Kristol admits, "it'd bad for the Republicans."

Whether it's false modesty or genuine concern, no one in the Gore camp will say anything on the record to give the impression that they think it's all sewn up for their man. "Bill Bradley will be a very tough competitor, and we're taking his campaign very seriously," says New Hampshire Gore chieftain Shaheen. "He's not a candidate who can't raise money -- he certainly can," Shaheen says.

But even if Bradley ends up surpassing expectations at the bank, as well as in New Hampshire and Iowa, Gore's war chest will allow him easy layups with plenty of time on the clock, while Bradley will be at half-court forcing shots at the buzzer. No matter how wise or charismatic Gary Hart was in 1984, he just couldn't cut through Walter Mondale's committed delegates and cash-on-hand. Eight years of lining up your ducks beats poetry and nuance every time.

In Keene two Saturday nights ago, for instance, both Gore and his wife were no-shows, while Bradley got there early and spoke at length to the crowd. That didn't stop Cheshire County Democratic Committee vice chairman Greg Martin -- at the door of the Keene State College dining commons collecting the $8 for the spaghetti dinner -- from sporting a "Gore 2000" button. "I think he's done a great job as vice president," Martin says. "He has been far and above the best [vice president] that we've ever had."
salon.com | April 23, 1999

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