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The kickoff to Campaign 2000? | page 1, 2, 3, 4

The 42nd Congressional District seems a little like the land that time forgot. Despite a national economic boom, it is plagued by declining industry and reductions in federal defense spending. Federal defense contracts have long provided jobs for residents of the 42nd, which is anchored by Norton Air Force Base. When Norton closed in 1991, welfare rolls skyrocketed. Today, nearly 30 percent of the district's residents receive welfare benefits. The largest employer in the area remains the county of San Bernardino. While nearby areas like Burbank and the San Fernando Valley have bounced back from defense cutbacks by attracting high-tech and entertainment jobs, much of San Bernardino County remains economically depressed.

The cutbacks and base closure have brought a dramatic demographic shift over the last 10 years. More than ever, the district is a bedroom community whose residents trek into Los Angeles or Orange County for work each day, but can't afford Orange County or Los Angeles real estate. By 8 a.m. every business day, a steady 40-mile stream of traffic crawls from the district's western edge toward Los Angeles.

At the same time, the district's Latino population has gone from 18 percent to 37 percent. And, as is the case elsewhere in California, Latinos are overwhelmingly voting Democratic -- the so-called "187 bounce," a surge to the polls by Latinos since Proposition 187 appeared on the California ballot in 1994. The measure sought to eliminate social benefits for undocumented residents, and remove their children from public schools. Though it passed with nearly 60 percent of the vote, the initiative was a clarion call for non-registered Latino voters to register and vote, and for many immigrants to seek citizenship and register to vote. Overwhelmingly, those new voters have been Democrats.

The effects of the 187 bounce in the 42nd district have been dramatic. In 1992, conservative Bruce Herschenson easily carried the district against Barbara Boxer. In 1998, Boxer beat Republican Matt Fong by nearly 20 points.

Brown and Baca are expected to split the Latino vote. But the other big change in state politics, the reinvigoration of organized labor, could boost Baca. Massive get-out-the-vote efforts coordinated by the AFL-CIO have helped wrest districts in the northern part of Orange County, once a Republican stronghold, into the Democratic column on both the congressional and state legislative level. Organized labor has come out strong for Baca, sending hundreds of precinct walkers and engaging in their "labor-to-neighbor" program to help get out the vote.

Some have portrayed the race between Brown and Baca as a contest between old and new Democrats. Brown, a former Chicano activist, is a liberal in the mold of her late husband. She has received endorsements from liberal U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer, as well as the Sierra Club and EMILY's List. Baca seems a prototypical Reagan Democrat, adopting a pro-union stand while focusing on law-and-order issues.

But on most issues, the candidates are remarkably similar. Both are pro-choice, and both sound consistent Democratic themes on issues like education, social security and tax breaks for industry and the middle class. The big issue that divides them is guns.

Throughout his career, Baca has taken money from the National Rifle Association (NRA) and other gun groups, and voted against recent state proposals to widen the ban on assault weapons and ban cheap handguns. Brown supports stricter gun controls, and has received the endorsement of Handgun Control, Inc. and its chair, Sarah Brady. In the wake of countless random shootings in recent months, political prognosticators are looking to this race as a test of whether the gun issue will have political legs by November 2000.

In many ways, the race is a perfect test case for the gun issue. While Democrats enjoy a 20 percent registration advantage, the district is unquestionably a moderate one. Party labels mean very little here, especially since California's open primary system was adopted in 1996. Brown has used the gun issue to help rally support among Democratic women, who have proven to be more apt to support gun control laws. Baca, meanwhile, has tried to downplay his NRA support, pointing to a pair of recent state measures he supported requiring trigger locks and minimum age requirements for gun ownership.

For Baca and Brown, victory means targeting voters in the blue-collar heart of the district, in the cities along the Interstate 10 corridor. The freeway is the district's major artery, serving as a link between the golf courses of Palm Springs and the heart of downtown Los Angeles. But the 30-mile stretch of I-10 that bisects the district is dotted with working-class cities, where shadows of past industry are visible from the highway.

"Land here is still relatively cheap," Brown said. "Fifty years ago, this was an agricultural district. Now we grow houses." Like Baca, Brown's campaign headquarters are in the city of San Bernardino. As in much of California, strip malls are the dominant feature of the local landscape. The malls are filled with cheap hair salons, discount stores like J.C. Penney, Payless Shoes and Montgomery Wards. In the residential districts, there are bars on the windows of many of dilapidated A-frame houses. This is where the war for the Democratic nomination is being waged.

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