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That deal, which left many industrial union leaders angry, now looks especially hollow and leaves Sweeney politically vulnerable unless he takes the administration to task on its China policies. With the admission of China to the WTO, it would be much more difficult to make even the slightest headway toward linking trade privileges and protection of internationally recognized worker rights.

The administration acknowledges that some U.S. industries -- such as apparel and textiles -- will lose many jobs to Chinese imports, but the United States market is already open to many other Chinese products and last year ran a $57 billion trade deficit with China. Although the new trade deal may open business and financial service markets to American companies, unions and other free-trade skeptics doubt the forecasts of a China export boom that will diminish the deficit and gain jobs for the United States. After all, Levinson argues, the administration used similar models in evaluating NAFTA and was far off the mark.

Imports from Mexico were eight times greater in just the first five years of NAFTA than the International Trade Commission had projected for the "long term." The administration negotiated provisions to protect against surges of Chinese import in certain industries and to eliminate export subsidies, but labor argues that China's suppression of worker rights to organize and bargain for higher wages allows them to produce cheap products and gives them an unfair market advantage, which will lead to the loss of American jobs.

Even more than trade deficits and job losses, organized labor is worried that China's entry into the WTO will stifle any progress on defending workers' rights around the world. Competition from China is likely to encourage governments in other poor, developing countries to suppress worker rights and hold down wages. The poorer countries of Asia may face the biggest immediate short-term job threat when the WTO admits China, which is expected to capture much of the export-oriented garment, textile and shoe business from other countries in Asia when the global agreement on quotas on "fiber" products expires in five years.

The repercussions of the trade deal and China's entry into the WTO could go far beyond what most people think of as "trade." New foreign competition could hasten the loss of jobs in China's large state industries, throwing millions of workers into the streets, depressing wages further and creating social turmoil. As cheap Western grains flood Chinese markets, many millions more peasants may be forced off the land into the cities. As China opens up to international investment, banks and financial services firms, it will lose some of the control over its economy that helped it avoid the worst of the Asian financial crisis of recent years.

Analysts like Morici argue that membership in the WTO will "further lessen the grip" of the Chinese government over the economy and eventually lead to improved conditions on human-rights issues. But the United Nations Development Program reported earlier this year that rapid economic liberalization in developing countries has been associated with huge increases in inequality, and does not necessarily lead to improvements of human rights.
salon.com | Nov. 16, 1999

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