Would Microsoft successfully cut off Java's air supply as it had done to so many other competitors?

While others pondered the fate of Java, Shirky saw an opportunity: He figured that PC manufacturers could trump the software giant. In an open letter on the Web, Shirky asked Dell, Compaq, IBM and other manufacturers to install the most recent version of the JVM "on every personal computer you manufacture."

"Your support for Java will immediately provide impetus to, and an outlet for, the talents of the world's programmers, as well as increase the value of your hardware to the user and encourage the diversity of the software ecosystem," Shirky wrote. "More importantly, your action will secure for your customers ongoing access to a vast and growing body of important and innovative software."

Will the PC manufacturers agree? Shirky isn't sure. But he remains confident about Java's chances and he's determined to keep fighting for diversity in what he calls the "computer ecosystem." In an interview with Salon, Shirky explained the genesis of his open letter, why PCs need Java and how Microsoft is waging its battle against open-source software.

Why did you write the letter? What are you hoping to achieve?

Well, when I saw the decision last week to allow the OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] -- the Compaqs, the Dells -- a greater flexibility in configuring the desktop, there was this general gnashing of teeth: "Oh, this is too late! This is not really a big deal anymore because there's no more competition in the browser space."

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But it seemed to me that was being too defeatist and that the people who were making that case didn't really understand the potential significance of this change. The thing that Microsoft has always had on its side is low coordination cost. If Microsoft decides it's going to do something and put it in Windows, it can instantly coordinate across many hundreds of thousands and ultimately millions of desktops by simply putting it in the new release of the operating system. No one else, except very recently AOL, has that kind of reach. But that's because the OEMs have been locked out of the conversation. Once you've got Dell, IBM and Compaq, or Compaq, Gateway and Toshiba -- some small group -- to agree to coordination costs, then the others would probably join. So you're now coordinating among half a dozen players, not several dozen players.

So I thought, Where could this influence or improve competition? Everyone is focusing on formats -- on RealPlayer, for example. But it occurred to me that it could create competition at the level of the API [application program interface]. There's not any competition for the desktop operating system, but if there were more than one way to write a program that talks to the desktop operating system -- which is to say a program that talks either to Windows directly or to the Java Virtual Machine -- then you'd be back to competition on the desktop. So it seemed to me that Java was a natural target for this small group of computer manufacturers to be able to offer.

The second half of this relates to the fact that the PC is slowly becoming a server. Napster has shown us places where content can be served outwards from the PC across the Internet, rather than having to be stored on big expensive Web servers like Yahoo. And Java is the server-class programming language of choice. So much code for the server has been written in Java. So if the PC manufacturers adopted Java, they would immediately enable their users to use code that has been built and debugged over the years. And as we start to see things like peer-to-peer networks and Web services, where the distinction between client and server is somewhat blurred, this could be a huge win for everybody.

The Free Software Project
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