B Y J A M E S C A R V I L L E
Dole blows his big chance When your poll numbers are in the cellar, merely avoiding embarrassment just ain't good enough it's way past my bedtime -- and you know how much I need my beauty rest -- but I'll give you my two cents on how the debate went last night. First, a word on form -- we'll get to content in a minute. I thought it worked out great. It didn't look a thing like a boxing match. I'd even go as far as to say it looked dignified. Before the networks started their broadcasts, Jim Lehrer gave the audience a stern warning not to applaud -- and they listened. I was shocked. Neither the President nor I was happy that Ross Perot was excluded from the debate. But I have to say, it worked out better without him there. Without Perot and his goofy one-liners, the two candidates didn't feel the need to one-up each other with dimwitticisms about farm animals and auto parts. Also, with only two guys there, there were no rude interruptions. With three guys, it would have been a bit of a three-ring circus. (You gotta feel a little sorry for Perot, though. An ABC poll taken immediately after the debate showed that he lost two thirds of his support -- falling from 6 percent to 2 percent -- just because they didn't let him in door.) Now, here's what I thought about the content. Dole did fine. He didn't look like a geezer. He didn't scare the youngsters at home with scowls. He didn't have trouble speaking in complete sentences. He didn't put his foot in his mouth. But I'm sorry, folks. Merely avoiding embarrassment just ain't good enough when you're that far down in the polls. This was Bob Dole's big chance to show that he wasn't trying to be a bridge to the past. He could have used this forum to make a case that the only thing he was caught in was a tricky turn of rhetoric. Instead, he let himself get lured into talking about his votes in the Senate back in the 1960s, and he talked repeatedly about World War II and even brought up the Civil War. Bad strategy, plain and simple. And once again, he didn't share with us his vision for the future. He didn't even try to manufacture one. As far as I can figure, his only plan for the future consists of telling kids not to do drugs and handing out tax candy to adults. Come to think of it, he didn't even make much deal of his tax scheme. We'll hear plenty about it on Wednesday night, when Jack Kemp, the televangelist of taxes, takes on Al Gore in their debate in St. Petersburg. But Bob Dole hardly raised a peep. It's blatantly obvious: His heart just isn't in supply-side economics. Bob Dole also blew his chance to show that he's more than just a narrowly focused legislative mechanic. He bogged down in bizarre details that no one could follow. How many people know who Rene Preval is? Senator Ribicoff, anyone? And did you catch those weird references to someone in Cleveland named Shakespeare? Was he going for the English-major vote, or what? And this I don't get either: Why did Dole keep turning the debate back to education and Medicare? There are no two issues where the guy is weaker. President Clinton hammered the guy over and over for trying to cut $30 billion from education. I'm sorry, but there's no positive spin you can put on cuts of that size. That's not just cutting the rate of growth of government. That's cutting the rate of growth of kids' minds. Bob Dole thought he could diffuse the Medicare issue by saying that the President was trying to scare seniors. Look, we don't need to scare seniors. They're already scared. They know that last year, when the Republicans were proposing a tax cut of $250 billion, they had to go after Medicare in a big way. And they also know that Bob Dole is now proposing a tax cut more than twice as big. Trust me: they know the score. Bill Clinton did exactly what he needed to do. He was Presidential. He stayed on message. He didn't feel the need to answer every trivial charge. He was not defensive. He made it clear that the issues are not isolated position papers in his brain. He showed that he can connect with people like few men who have occupied his office. On Friday and Saturday, I was in Chautauqua helping the President to prepare. And quite frankly, when I left, I didn't know what to expect from the debate. I knew that the President was going to go for a no-nonsense, no-gimmick approach, but I wasn't sure how that was going to go over. Bottom line: it worked. Can Dole come back? Join Carville in Table Talk.
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